Policy Dialogue on Just Energy Transitions 2.0: Pathways to Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels

The 2025 Policy Dialogue on Just Energy Transitions: Pathways to Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels (PPFF) will focus on national strategies for managing the decline of oil and gas consumption and the likely transboundary implications of global phase downs for producing countries that rely significantly on oil and gas exports for their national economies. We will specifically consider importer country phase down plans and how the timing of such plans tracks with exporter country preparedness for economic diversification.

The program will address three critical issues to enable just energy transitions, which were raised at the 2024 PPFF dialogue:

1) The lack of awareness among many producer-exporter countries about the existing and/or anticipated plans from consumer countries to reduce oil and gas imports. Most producing nations seemingly lack confidence in the fact that oil and gas demand reduction plans will be enacted. Continuous business-as-usual operations can increase the risk of stranded assets and other negative economic and social impacts.

2) Decision-making on demand reduction plans tends to happen in a vacuum, often using a top-down approach with little input from potentially affected parties, such as exporting countries. Unilateral decisions can further erode trust between countries and negatively affect collective progress toward ambitious global just energy transitions.

3) The lack of understanding and data - particularly quantitative - of the unintended socio-economic impacts of demand reduction plans on producer-exporter countries, hinders their capacity to proactively envision economic diversification pathways, as well as timely measures to protect vulnerable populations. This gap also hampers the capacity of consumer nations to manage demand reductions in ways that effectively balance equity considerations to minimise negative impacts where possible.

In response to these critical issues, the PPFF program will convene national representatives from key fossil fuel producer-exporter and consumer-importer countries (with emphasis on oil and gas), including policymakers and researchers, finance and private sector representatives, civil society, and key experts and modellers to discuss how to enable effective demand reduction management strategies that take just energy transitions into consideration, and seek viable pathways to diversify their economies. Participants will explore specific case studies, and analyse how different countries can best anticipate and respond to the potential economic, social, environmental and equity implications of demand reduction plans.

In response to the need for quantitative data, the dialogue will explore how current modelling tools can approach these issues to allow for timely policy planning and implementation. The discussion will also allow participants to identify if new models or modelling approaches may be required to translate demand reduction scenarios into actionable analytical input.

Date

Jun 23 - Jun 27, 2025

Session no.

S901-01

Location

Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg, Austria

Contact

Nancy Smith

Director of Development and Philanthropy

Nicola Daniel

Director, Finance and Governance

Edlira Kastrati

Program Manager, Peace and Justice

Content overview

Program Information Participants Partners

Program Information

Key Questions

What management strategies are oil and gas consumer countries considering or implementing to reduce reliance on imports as they transition away from fossil fuels?
What are the potential implications of demand reduction strategies on oil and gas producer-exporter countries from the perspective of a just transition?
How can we model future trends and impacts to inform policy and decision making?
What strategies can help minimise the unintended transboundary impacts of demand management strategies to meet Paris-aligned pathways, especially for vulnerable populations?
How can oil and gas producer-exporter countries manage the decline of fossil fuel consumption while maintaining a focus on sustainable development, including strategies for economic diversification?
What strategies, partnerships or platforms can support collaborative and equitable governance at the intersection of domestic and international policies for demand reduction?

Program Goals

The first convening was held 8-12 September 2024 in Salzburg, Austria, bringing together policymakers and researchers from 11+ countries (mostly oil and gas producers), as well as representatives from international organisations, civil society and the private sector. Participants focused on key challenges and dilemmas of enacting just energy transitions, and explored available solutions, tools and opportunities for an equitable transition, including economic diversification. A summary note and 6 briefs were produced by in-country researchers including actionable policy recommendations for Azerbaijan, Brazil, Ghana, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago.
The goals for 2025 include:

Productive exchange: Facilitate and advance productive exchange between policy- and decision-makers, researchers, and relevant cross-sector experts, catalysing new collaborative efforts for mutual benefit.
Enhanced Collaboration: Foster productive exchanges between major oil and gas producers and consumers, creating opportunities for cooperation on just transition strategies.
Policy Innovation: Identify actionable policies that balance economic diversification with equity and climate goals.
Capacity Building: Empower decision-makers with information, insights, tools and evidence to implement just transition strategies that align with national and global climate targets.

Program Format

Approximately 50 experts will convene for a highly interactive residential program at Schloss Leopoldskron, home of Salzburg Global, under Chatham House Rule to allow for open dialogue. The agenda will be co-developed to ensure inclusiveness and relevance, and will be structured around clear evidence-based recommendations for policymakers.
Studies by experts will be commissioned to ensure that policy recommendations are grounded in recent and nationally relevant research. The research will be informed by the participants’ discussions and dissemination following the convening.