Polarization and Violent Threats to Democratic Systems: Assessing the Threats and What We Can do About Them

The program engaged a group of 27 researchers, journalists, political scientists, policymakers, historians, behavioral economists, and those with expertise on the effect of social media and new technologies on political speech, incitement, and violence. Participants were selected from a group of mature democratic systems and worked to collaboratively shape and inform a new research agenda.

Participants addressed the following key questions and issues:

• Defining Political Violence: What constitutes political violence in contemporary democratic societies? Are there accepted and agreed definitions of what constitutes political violence? Or do different democratic societies use different definitions of political violence?
   
• Assessment of Threats: How and when do hate speech and polarization serve as precursors to violence in different democratic contexts? How do we understand the threshold for when incitement leads to violence, and what insights do we currently have regarding the transition from hate speech to physical or political violence?
   
• Understanding the Nexus between Political Violence and Information Technology: How do we evaluate and comprehend the relationship between polarization and political violence, especially amidst the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential amplification of polarizing political narratives? How can we accurately assess both existing and emerging threats of political violence in an era of rapidly advancing information technologies? What new measures and “guardrails” are different democratic societies employing and what additional mechanisms do democratic societies need in order to mitigate threats in this emerging context?
   
• Comparative Analysis: Where are there similarities and differences in understanding and assessing the threats of polarization and the potential rise of political violence? To what extent are conditions conducive to political violence more severe in present-day democratic societies compared to other historical periods? Do we need to redefine and reevaluate the nature of incitement and political violence in the age of digital media and AI?

The program was held at Schloss Leopoldskron, the program home of Salzburg Global. The agenda was co-designed with the participants, drawing on current research and undertaking cross-national and interdisciplinary comparisons and analysis.   

The project will unfold from 2024 to 2026* and will:

• Develop an international, interdisciplinary network of researchers and stakeholders working on understanding and addressing rising polarization and political violence in a range of mature democratic systems;
   
• define a set of critical questions and objectives to inform and shape a new research agenda on the rise of polarization and political violence across the selected countries;
   
• contribute to a better understanding of how to assess escalating threats; and,
   
• posit policy and practice recommendations for how to begin to more effectively address them.
  
   

In 2024, the program focused primarily on understanding and mapping the landscape and initiating a cross-national research and data-driven dialogue among important stakeholders.

The 2024 program produced a cross-national literature review, recommended key research questions, and identified areas for further research.

The preliminary research questions and proposed initial framing was presented immediately following the program at the annual Salzburg Global American Studies Program. The Program gathered researchers and academics, civil society and policy representatives from the USA, Europe, and around the world. The program, Crossing the Pacific: The Asian American Experience in U.S. Society and Discourse, was held September 18 – 22, 2024.

Reactions and recommendations were collected and fed into the future work of the Polarization and Violent Threats to Democratic Systems network.