Report from the Polarization and Violent Threats to Democratic Systems program helps identify ways to reduce the threat of political violence and address the dangers that polarization and political violence present to democratic systems
In 2024, Salzburg Global and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation set out to assess the threats of polarization and political violence within democratic systems and to better understand what can be done about them.
Our aim, given the rapidly increasing levels of political polarization and political violence across a range of democracies, is to make a meaningful contribution to this understanding and to help identify ways not only to reduce the threat of political violence, but to address the dangers that polarization and political violence present to democratic systems themselves.
The events of 2025 have so far indicated two things. First, that the importance of this project – and the work of those involved in it – has not diminished in any way. Second, that in some democratic societies, the threat of state sponsored intimidation, recrimination, and violence to achieve political aims is becoming an increasingly prominent feature of the democratic landscape.
This report suggests that the greatest dangers to democratic systems emerge when full democracies shift toward “hybrid democracies,” i.e., systems with democratic structures but marked by dysfunction, identity struggles, and intense forms of political competition that undermine democratic processes. In this sense, “hybrid democracies” are particularly susceptible to political violence because hybrid democratic systems often exhibit violence – or the threat of retribution, recrimination, and violence – as a tool to manage deep-rooted conflicts over identity and governance and to dismantle the accountability mechanisms associated with thriving democratic societies.
How these threats will evolve, and what the repercussions for democracy may be, is not yet clear. What remains clear, however, is that understanding these threats, and knowing what to do about them, is among the most important questions facing the future of democratic societies today.
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The Violent Threats to Democratic Systems project is developing an international, interdisciplinary network of researchers and stakeholders working on understanding and addressing rising polarization and political violence in a range of mature democratic systems. In addition, the project is defining a set of critical questions and objectives to inform and shape a new research agenda on the rise of polarization and political violence across selected countries.
Salzburg Global is grateful to the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation for their generous support and partnership that made this program possible.
