Polarization and Violent Threats to Democratic Systems: From Threat Assessment to Research Agendas and Response Frameworks

Beginning in 2024, the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation and Salzburg Global began a new project to assess the threats of polarization and political violence within democratic systems and to better understand what can be done about them. Our aim, given the rapidly increasing levels of political polarization and political violence across a range of democratic societies, is to make a meaningful contribution to this understanding and to help identify ways not only to reduce the threat of political violence, but to address the dangers that polarization and political violence present to democratic systems themselves.

From September 15-18, 2025, Salzburg Global will convene the second session of the Polarization and Violent Threats to Democratic Systems program to specifically address the increasing risks of state-sponsored and state-adjacent violence, especially where violence and intimidation is used to undermine political opposition, weaken institutions through state coercion, and erode the legitimacy of democratic processes and norms.

This session will build on the findings of the project in 2024 (Report available here) and will further investigate when and how political violence evolves from isolated incidents into a more fundamental threat to democracy itself, particularly when governments or ruling parties use it as a deliberate political strategy to leverage or maintain power. It will ask how dangerous speech, misinformation, and elite threat construction can shift societies from heightened emotional division to political environments where violence is seen as necessary or legitimate. And, it will explore existing research and knowledge from other current and historic examples of where “hybrid democracies” and “competitive authoritarianism” have become especially prone to political violence and democratic decline. The session will support this exploration by fostering cross-national and cross-sectoral dialogue to develop frameworks, indicators, and potential responses.

Date

Sep 15 - Sep 18, 2025

Session no.

S902-01

Location

Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg, Austria

Contact

Benjamin Glahn

Deputy CEO and Managing Director, Programs

Kateryna Anselmi

Program Manager, Peace and Justice

Content overview

Additional Info Fellows Resource Specialist Salzburg Global Staff Partners

Key Questions

What does current research tell us about the relationship between state-sponsored or state-mediated violence in orchestrating violence or the threat of violence? What examples are most relevant to the current trends shaping political violence across democratic societies today, and what can be learned from them?
What are the early signals that a democratic system is approaching a tipping point—and how can we distinguish them from temporary crises? Can we develop reliable frameworks and indicators that allow for earlier and more effective intervention?
Where has existing research cataloged successful strategies and tactics to reduce political violence that is not only tolerated by the state, but instrumentalized as a mechanism of political survival or dominance? What are the limits of current legal, civic, and institutional responses—and what new tools are required?
When does political violence cease to be an exception in democratic systems and become a structural feature of governance? How do we identify the shift from sporadic incidents to normalized patterns of coercion, intimidation, and state-sponsored control?
How are current political elites weaponizing identity, fear, and institutional distrust to activate violence—and how does this reshape democratic competition? What forms of threat construction prove most effective, and why are some societies more susceptible to these tactics?
In what ways are digital platforms shaping the conditions for democratic erosion and political violence? What are the governance failures, regulatory gaps, or business models that enable these risks, and what bold interventions are needed?

Session Goals

Identify critical knowledge gaps, co-design cross-national research questions, and propose innovative methodologies to deepen understanding of how political violence evolves—and how it can be prevented or reversed.
Identify potential cross-national research collaborations to advance new research agendas to better understand how and why political violence evolves in democratic societies and what can be done about it.
Identify when polarization, elite rhetoric, and political competition transform from signs of stress to signs of systemic breakdown—and what conditions accelerate that shift.
Explore new research into whether affective, pernicious, and toxic polarization are sequential—and how these concepts help us anticipate, track, and interrupt the path to political violence.

Session Outputs

A second-phase synthesis report, extending and deepening the findings from 2024
A targeted brief on state-directed and state-tolerated political violence
Identification of priority research areas and practical responses for 2025–2026
Initiate future case studies, publications, or collaborative research projects

These outputs will inform future activities in the series, including additional convenings, partner-led events, and research efforts supported by Salzburg Global and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.

Participant Profile

The session will convene 25–30 invited participants with deep expertise and experience in the following areas:

Political violence, authoritarianism, and democratic governance
Legal accountability, constitutional frameworks, and the rule of law
Civil society resilience and human rights protection
Journalism and media analysis focused on hate speech and incitement
Behavioral sciences and psychology
Platform regulation, digital governance, and speech moderation
Philanthropy, policy, and academic research

Participants will be drawn from the United States, Europe, and other select democracies, with a focus on those actively engaged in addressing, documenting, or researching how and where political violence erodes democratic norms. While we remain committed to engaging our existing network of Fellows, a portion of participants joining the next phase in Salzburg will be new to the program. This approach is designed to build on current work and insights while expanding the network to include additional perspectives and expertise.