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Finance & Governance Feature

Navigating the Energy Transition: Global Dialogue for Shared Prosperity

How modeling tools and inclusive cooperation can empower oil and gas producers in a post-fossil fuel future

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mountain view out of a window with window shutters blurred in view

A view of the Untersberg mountain from the window of Schloss Leopoldskron. Photo Credit: Richard Schabetsberger

As the world pushes toward net-zero emissions, many oil and gas producing countries are left with limited data and little voice in decisions that shape their futures. While many importing countries are planning to reduce their demand for fossil fuels, producing countries lack the modeling tools, data, and policy access needed to plan for what comes next.

From June 23 to 27, 2025, the Salzburg Global “Policy Dialogue on Just Energy Transitions 2.0: Pathways to Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels” convened policymakers, researchers, experts, and civil society representatives from key fossil fuel producer-exporter and consumer-importer countries to explore how better modeling and evidence-based collaboration can illuminate the path forward.

From quantifying social impacts to designing inclusive strategies, Salzburg Global Fellows underscored the growing need for tools that not only anticipate the risks of energy transition but also equip communities to navigate them with resilience and agency.

Bridging Importer-Exporter Divides

As fossil fuel importers accelerate net-zero plans, exporting countries face uncertainty about the speed and scope of demand reduction plans. Lahra Liberti, Head of Unit for Natural Resources for Development at the OECD, sees promise in a collaborative framework discussed during the session that manages declining fossil fuel demand. She believes that this could “establish more mindful cooperation and concerted efforts between fossil fuel exporters and importers. This approach acknowledges the realities we're facing - geopolitical tensions, the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ongoing concerns around energy security, and widespread energy poverty in the developing world.”

Tong-Q Lee, Director of the Board at Climate Change Center, has worked for over 25 years as a diplomat in South Korea. As someone from an energy-importing country, he believes the session broadened his understanding of the vulnerabilities faced by exporters. Through conversing with other Fellows, he learned “that these [exporting] countries face significant challenges in the energy transition too - challenges that can lead to instability in energy markets, which also affects importers. That realization made it clear to me that collaboration between exporting and importing countries is essential.”

Localizing the Just Transition

Katya Puga directs I+D+P, a research and participation initiative in Mexico, and emphasized the need to ground the just energy transition in local realities. “An important conversation that emerged briefly, but deserves more attention, is about whose territories are actually transitioning. We often talk in terms of countries - importers and exporters - but real impacts happen at a subnational level,” she said.

She also called for greater inclusion of Indigenous communities, highlighting that “in many oil-producing regions across Latin America, Canada, and parts of Africa and Asia, Indigenous communities live with the consequences, often without their consent.” Katya hopes that future conversations “bring in Indigenous leaders, people with deep experience of the energy sector, who know both its harms and opportunities.”

Integrating Technical Insight With Global Policy

Both Tong-Q and Lahra particularly valued the opportunity at the Salzburg Global session to engage with experts working on energy modeling and simulations. These tools, they agreed, are critical for evidence-based policymaking.

Tong-Q noted that continuing conversations with colleagues involved in simulation and modeling “would help me develop stronger narratives and more evidence-based arguments when advocating for policy.”

Lahra echoed that sentiment, highlighting how the session created space for deeper technical engagement. “It was helpful to broaden my network and get exposed to some technical work, especially the work done by the modelers, which can help inform our policy dialogues and help policymakers take informed decisions,” she said.

She added that voices from the Global South remain underrepresented within international policy circles. Lahra noted:

"The conversation around a ‘just transition’ is complex and doesn’t always get traction in advanced economies. Although we’re working in the interest of developing countries, it’s important to help others see that solving the challenges in those countries is key to achieving net zero goals in a fair and effective way.”

Fostering New Forms of Collaboration

Fellows highlighted the importance of cross-regional learning and South-South collaboration. Katya, in particular, “had really rich conversations with participants from Trinidad and Tobago, Nigeria, and Namibia about economic diversification. We’re seeing similar issues in local communities transitioning away from extractive industries. It was great to exchange ideas on what models are working or not working, and how to ensure we don't end up concentrating the economy in a single new sector again.”

She shared an example from her work in a coastal Mexican community where fishermen are shifting from diesel to electric motors. “I told a participant from Trinidad and Tobago about it, and now we’re planning to collaborate and share ideas. That’s the kind of South–South collaboration this program really fostered. I’m excited to keep building on that.”

Looking ahead, Fellows see clear pathways for building on what began in Salzburg. Lahra envisions aligning the session outcomes with her work at the OECD, as “we share the same vision: supporting countries in developing equitable and sustainable pathways to shared prosperity.”

For Tong-Q, the next step is amplifying the session’s collective message on international stages:

“It’s important not to stop with the [session]. We need to work on delivering these ideas to decision makers and international platforms like COP. That way, our efforts can lead to tangible action.” 

Thameena Dhansay

Thameena Dhansay is a communications intern at Salzburg Global. She previously worked as a campaigner and social media officer at Fossil Free South Africa, an environmental NGO focused on fossil fuel divestment and exposing industry greenwashing. With over three years of communications experience across the sustainability, education, and healthcare sectors, Thameena offers a strong background in strategic storytelling, advocacy and climate communication. She holds a B.A. in multimedia production from the University of Cape Town, where her academic work explored media portrayals of Muslim women and the commercialization of feminism and diversity. Thameena is committed to advancing decolonial and intersectional climate justice. She views communications as a tool to challenge dominant narratives, hold powerful industries accountable, and drive systemic change. In September, she will start an M.Sc. in international development studies at Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

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