Diplomatic perspectives from the 2025 Munich Security Conference on transatlantic ties, global power shifts, and a path forward for Europe
This year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC), held from February 14 to 16, 2025, unfolded amid the start of U.S. President Trump’s second term, a strained transatlantic partnership, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. These included tensions with China, speculation surrounding Ukraine, and broader shifts in international alignments.
At an MSC side event hosted by Amerikahaus and Salzburg Global, Martin Weiss, president and CEO of Salzburg Global, sat down with Emily Haber, former German ambassador to the U.S., for a candid discussion.
The event was titled “Trump 1.0, Trump 2.0 – Where Do We Go From Here?”. Having both served as ambassadors during Trump’s first administration, they offered their firsthand experiences and perspectives on his return to power.
A Strained Transatlantic Bond
Emily Haber addressed Europe’s fixation on Trump himself, noting, “we have the tendency to personalize events that are actually structural, and I think we get it wrong.” She traced a shift back to 2018, when President Trump rejected the globalization consensus. Faith in free trade, open borders, and international cooperation waned as Trump embraced “America First” protectionism.
Unlike Presidents Biden and Obama, who sought to bolster American power by leaning on allies to navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape, Emily suggested Trump views alliances as liabilities – arrangements that exploit the U.S. and force unwanted compromises.
She elaborated that the current U.S. President prefers bilateral negotiations because America’s size and strength give it an advantage. Recent weeks have shown Trump projecting “dominance” toward partners, a message intended for America’s allies worldwide. Martin Weiss pushed back against Trump’s approach, emphasizing “America is so strong because it has allies.”
Reflecting on their diplomatic roles under Trump, Martin and Emily recalled his reluctance to consult allies like them. Meetings with administration officials were rare, and, as Emily put it, “they just wouldn’t listen.” She described the administration’s “very critical view of Europe” and his strategy of fragmentation.
By pitting European countries against each other, Emily said that the U.S. sought “to minimize European power projection and the capacity for it,” often by targeting powerful countries like Germany to deepen divisions on the continent.
A Geopolitical Shift Toward China
The focus of the conversation turned to recent geopolitical developments and how the Trump and Biden administrations have addressed these differently.
The U.S. is increasingly focused on regions like China and the Info-Pacific, where it faces an adversary matching its economic and technological capabilities. Martin observed, “If there’s one topic where you have bipartisanship, it is China. Both [Democratic and Republican] parties converge and take a hard line.”
Emily agreed, indicating this consensus emerged during the Obama administration “due to changes in the landscape and the nature of the challenges.” While both Democrats and Republicans shared this initial assessment, Emily believes they “drew different conclusions as far as cooperating and coordinating with allies is concerned.”
Martin noted, “On China, there are structural issues that drive towards a more confrontational approach. That comes from the system and its not easy to stop.” Emily added that “personal instincts of the president” still play a role in spite of the processes and trends at play. This makes Trump’s approach to China unpredictable.
Under Trump’s first presidency, the U.S. had a tense relationship with China marked by sanctions. However, recent moves like phone calls with Xi Jinping and an inauguration invite now hint at a friendlier approach. Emily added, “Uncertainty about what’s going to happen next has always been a strategy or tactic of the president.”
Ukraine’s Uncertain Future
Meanwhile, Ukraine loomed large at the MSC amid speculation about a peace deal. Emily highlighted the situation’s uncertainty, saying that no one – not even diplomats and advisors close to Trump – seems clear on the U.S. stance toward Russia or Ukraine. Martin suggested Trump is “keeping his cards close to his chest.” U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s omission of Ukraine in his speech at the MSC struck Emily as telling: It signaled to Europeans that they might be excluded from decisions about Ukraine’s future.
Navigating Trump’s “Disruption”
Both speakers described Trump as a “disrupter” who thrives on shaking things up with bold proposals. Emily outlined three possibilities behind his tactics: “The first one is sometimes he means what he says, the second is sometimes he says something to an audience because the audience likes it, and third, sometimes he says things as an opening move of negotiations.”
This unpredictability complicates issues like the Middle East, where Trump’s statements on Gaza might be posturing ahead of talks with regional actors.
Martin noted that an arrangement with Saudi Arabia would be the “big prize” for President Trump and for Israel. Trump’s “disruptive attitude,” they agreed, drives him to upend existing institutions and reshape politics, both in the U.S. and Europe.
Strategies for a European Response
In dealing with the Trump administration, Emily advised Europeans to “focus on what we want, focus on our interests, focus on the facts, and depart from there to deal with the rest.” Europe should first be clear about its own priorities before engaging with the U.S.
While President Trump’s first-term tariffs caught Europe by surprise, Martin noted he has “lost the element of surprise.” Europe is now better equipped to deal with tariffs and will likely respond with countermeasures – “they are prepared and ready to go,” he said.
Emily stressed European unity over fragmentation, suggesting that instead of individual countries trying to carve out exemptions, the “key goal must be to secure the narrative and performance of unity and cohesion.” Martin agreed that European countries should “resist the temptation of side deals” with the U.S.
In addition, Emily observed a shift in the administration’s tariff rhetoric, predicting that “we'll see a combination of using tariffs as a tool in order to enter into negotiations and tariffs being used as revenue.” Martin recommended that in response to tariffs, countries should be “tough in their reaction but at the same time offer a win,” citing Canada’s recent response as a model.
The personal insights shared by the two former ambassadors highlighted that President Trump’s second term promises to be a mixture of disruption and defiance. Alliances will be tested, power will be rebalanced, and uncertainty will reign.
For Europe, the path forward lies in unity, adaptability, and strategic clarity if the continent hopes to navigate the changing geopolitical context and redefine its own global role.
Emily Haber is a German diplomat who most recently served as the German Ambassador to the United States from June 2018 until June 2023. She previously served as State Secretary from 2011 to 2018, at the Federal Foreign Office from 2011 to 2013, and at the Federal Ministry of the Interior from 2014 to 2018.
Martin Weiss is the president and CEO of Salzburg Global. He previously served as Austrian Ambassador to the U.S. (2019-2022), Ambassador to Israel (2015-2019), Director of the Press and Information Department of the Foreign Ministry (2012-2015), and Ambassador to Cyprus (2009-2012), among other positions.
