Signals From Salzburg

Before attending the Salzburg Global session, I contributed an essay as a basis of our forthcoming discussions. I wasn’t particularly optimistic in my input on the issue of the future American involvement in the Balkans. Here is an excerpt:

"A few years ago, most would have agreed that if we looked ten years ahead, the United States would remain the ‘indispensable gardener’ (in Robert Kagan’s verse): when it tends the hedges of the liberal order, the paths stay open; when it looks away, the jungle grows back.

But frankly, both the tools and the terrain have changed - and so has the gardener’s attitude toward the jungle. The best we can now expect from the U.S. is a version of principled pragmatism: deterrence first, values second and only when feasible, and a tacit acceptance that the pursuit of perfection is no longer on offer.

The second scenario is darker. Driven by domestic exhaustion, an unmistakable sentiment among many American - and European - voters, Washington’s political climate could become permanently-ish skeptical of “forever commitments.” This scenario, too, divides into two possible outcomes: in the best case, Washington withdraws from Europe in a managed process; the worst, it actively undercuts European diplomacy for short-term tactical gains - for example, by selectively siding with local actors to extract concessions in unrelated arenas such as trade, energy, defense spending, or even future issues like AI regulation. In both cases, U.S. military presence and diplomatic influence in the Western Balkans would diminish rapidly by design.

The gardener quits the job.”

In Salzburg, I experienced a well curated agenda with refreshing political and professional diversity of participants. I enjoyed workshops led by Will Dobson, whom I enjoyed reading - many years ago - when he was an editor at Slate magazine; Timothy Head, senior republican strategist; the keynote speech by Candace Rondeaux, author of “Putin’s Sledgehammer”, a unique study of the Wagner group; discussions with Eddie Hartwig who led the United States Digital Service (USDS), a technology startup inside the White House. Truth be told, this was a group from which you could learn something in every discussion, both during and after the official agenda.

My pessimism started dissipating.

Because once you’re surrounded by such a range of minds, from academics and technologists to journalists and strategists - you’re reminded of the sheer depth and reach of American capacity. The United States, for all the noise (immense noise), current bout of self-doubt, and polarization, still contains within it an astonishing ecosystem of innovation and intellect and provides important, directional signals in the midst of the noise. No other nation so effortlessly brings together Stanford engineers, Iowa farmers, Harvard professors, and military tacticians into one conversation that still somehow functions, however chaotically, as a debate about the world’s future. The American university system, the incredibly impressive (if somewhat dangerous) tech industry’s dynamism, and the vast web of philanthropy and private capital all continue to churn ideas, produce tools, and show the money that shape global trajectories. The gardener may take a rest, but he never really stops.

Even in the realm of hard politics, recent events remind us that Washington still holds the world’s biggest levers. Trump's most recent plan for Gaza - however controversial - demonstrates again that when America decides to engage, the tectonic plates can shift. For better or worse, it remains the only actor capable of stopping wars or tilting the balance toward some form of order. Even progress. It’s an old cliché, but yes: Europe debates, America acts. And though the current execution of policies may appear haphazard or transactional, the very fact that an American initiative can still dominate the global conversation shows that its centrality is still intact.

The gardener might have put away the pruning shears, but he still owns the garden.

That doesn’t mean my overall pessimism has evaporated. I remain deeply concerned about the corrosion of civic trust or even social structures through social media, and about algorithmic platforms that so uncarefully reward outrage. And I’m still pessimistic that the Western Balkans (and Kosovo of course) will ever regain the attention we need to drive our own meaningful change. We are, after all, small countries in a noisy world. But perhaps that’s precisely the point: If one listens past the static, there are faint but vital signals. 

Important discussions are unfolding. Dialogue has not ceased. The world, though disordered, is not collapsing into a permanent jungle. Somewhere between the noise of decline, the implosion of old “liberal consensus,” and the quiet insistence on and persistence of reason, a few gardeners are still at work.