Security expert Candace Rondeaux believes that cyber tactics, “hybrid threats”, and the Wagner Group are impacting Russia's war in Ukraine
Candace Rondeaux is the Senior Director for the Future Frontlines program and Planetary Politics initiative at New America. A Pulitzer Prize winning journalist and regular contributor to The Financial Times, she served as the South Asia Bureau Chief for The Washington Post and Senior Analyst for the International Crisis Group in Afghanistan.
In the modern era, traditional geopolitical landscapes are being reshaped by the evolution of technology and unconventional warfare. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has not only redefined military engagement but also demonstrated the interplay of state power, technological advancements, and cyber warfare.
Candace Rondeaux, an international security expert, believes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a pivotal moment, “setting up some hard conversations about the legacies of exceptionalism both for America and Russia”. This conflict has shown the evolving nature of cross-border threats, undermining traditional state-centric security ideas. These threats can transcend borders through physical means, like the movement of armed individuals. But they can also emerge as ideological fixations “that allow us to convince enough people that sovereignty does not matter and that we can travel across borders and do what we like with impunity”.
The pivotal role of technology
Technology, particularly in the cyber realm, has become a central player in this conflict. Russian cyber tactics challenge the established principles of the rules-based international order. Not part of creating these norms, Russia is now leveraging cyber diplomacy to claim its seat at the global decision-making table.
Technology has always changed the nature of conflicts and continues to do so in this era of rapid innovation. According to Candace, humankind tends “to create tools with which they can assert power over not just human adversaries, but the adversaries of nature”. The nature of wars is that “technology will be present and change”.
In the current information age, “we are now always on a trajectory of challenges to our cognitive bias from the acceleration of information intake and production”. This hinders our ability to think and communicate clearly with each other, and without this open dialogue, “we are at war with each other”.
Digital sphere and international dynamics
A signature aspect of Russia’s digital strategy is its apparent disregard for established rules. However, Candace questions the very nature of these rules, suggesting that “accumulated capital in the form of ‘technopolies’ is dictating the rules”. States do not understand how to cope with the hold of these powerful tech companies on technology. While they are primarily based in the US and China, Russia works to adapt and influence technological dynamics in their favor.
Space technology, critical for missile capabilities, is another domain where the US and Russia have been traditional leaders. However, India and the EU are rapidly catching up and Russia risks getting left behind.
Referring to the example of how the enigma machine in World War II led to the creation of computing and the internet, Candace emphasized that the fundamental lesson for international security is that “you’ve got to understand how technology works”. It is especially important to understand “how technological change shifts power between states and people” because while “authoritarians would have us believe that this is magic,” it is not. It is becoming increasingly important to make international agreements on the use of technology as a weapon.
Hybrid threats and the Wagner Group
The term “hybrid threat” refers to an action conducted by state or non-state actors, whose goal is to undermine or harm a target by influencing its decision-making. This concept is often misunderstood, as Candace clarified that “the only thing hybrid about hybridity is the inattention to law” rather than the emergence of new forms of conflict. The real issue lies in the selective enforcement of international law by major powers like the US, Russia, and the EU. “When we do not enforce our laws, then it looks hybrid to us,” she explained.
The best example of a “hybrid threat” that Candace has researched for many years is the Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company. Their operations have often been labeled as a “hybrid threat” due to their unconventional nature. However, she claims that what makes it hybrid is simply that states are “not enforcing the law of the sea”, including laws surrounding embargos, smuggling, and money laundering.
In practice, the enforcement of international law can be effective in containing groups like the Wagner Group. Referring to the June 2023 events in which Wagner troops advanced towards Moscow, Candace explained that “the rebellion was because Prigozhin couldn't get the capital that he needed anymore, neither from the state nor from the black market. He couldn't get it from the black market because everybody was exposing what he was doing.” The increased scrutiny of their activities shows that by understanding the true nature of these threats, the international community can develop strategies to counter them.
Western response to Russian tactics
Since Russia’s interference in the 2016 US elections, the West’s response to Russian cyber threats has been a mix of ideological defense and a tactical “naming and shaming” approach. However, a more varied approach is needed, such as embracing different norms, engaging in dialogue, and emphasizing digital literacy.
Candace highlighted the uncertainty of continued US support for Ukraine, warning that “the money will dwindle”. A $61 billion aid package for Ukraine has stalled in the US Congress, where it is now tied to US border security and aid for Israel. She suggested that Europe needs to increase its defense spending in a broader strategic sense, commenting that the US has not “articulated what that means in terms of NATO, but there is much more that can be done”.
Russia's challenges to established norms showcase the interplay between technology, international law, and warfare in the modern age. Experts and policymakers need to understand technological impacts, enforce international law, and have strategic foresight in a world where the rules of engagement are constantly evolving.
Candace Rondeaux attended the Salzburg Global Pathways to Peace Initiative titled “Bear With Us: What Is To Be Done About Russia?” from October 18 to 21, 2023. This program enabled experts to convene at Salzburg Global Seminar for a high-level dialogue exploring scenarios and questions about what options exist to engage, contain, and hold Russia accountable in a post-war context.
