Salzburg Global Fellow Silvia Boltuc examines the complex socio-political landscape of the North Caucasus region
This op-ed was written by Silvia Boltuc, who attended the Salzburg Global Pathways to Peace Initiative titled “Bear With Us: What Is to Be Done About Russia?” from October 18 to 21, 2023.
The North Caucasus’ reactions to the Ukraine conflict
The Ukraine conflict has engendered a confluence of socioeconomic challenges for the Russian Federation, primarily stemming from the imposition of Western sanctions and the inherent complexities of a multiethnic, multireligious society that typifies Russia. The ramifications of these sanctions have reverberated throughout the Russian economy, inducing a host of adverse effects ranging from inflationary pressures to constraints on critical imports. This economic strain has implications not only for the government but also for the broader populace, exemplifying the intricate interplay between geopolitical exigencies and domestic socio-political dynamics.
Simultaneously, the conflict has galvanized internal dissent within Russia, particularly in the early stages of the crisis. Protests have emerged in various regions of the country, underscoring the diversity of opinions regarding the Kremlin’s military intervention. Notably, these protests have been most pronounced in the North Caucasus, a region characterized by a mosaic of ethnic minorities and indigenous populations. A significant aspect of our research at SpecialEurasia delved into this phenomenon, illuminating the distinct perspective of these communities, particularly in light of the notable presence of non-ethnic Russians among the soldiers deployed in Ukraine. International media reports have corroborated our findings, highlighting protests against the partial military mobilization and the distressing toll of casualties among North Caucasian constituents.
In the face of this internal dissent, data from the Levada Center highlighted that President Putin retains a substantial measure of support. This enduring backing is indicative of the complex tapestry of public sentiment in Russia, where divergent viewpoints coexist. It is essential to acknowledge that, despite the internal dissent and economic challenges, the Russian Federation has not witnessed the large-scale anti-government movement anticipated by Western observers. This underscores the nuanced nature of the socio-political landscape and cautions against hasty extrapolations regarding the stability of the current government.
Nonetheless, the confluence of factors introduced by the Ukraine conflict engenders a discernible undercurrent of geopolitical risk for Moscow. The heightened visibility of Russia’s actions on the international stage, coupled with the enduring effects of sanctions, creates a precarious terrain for the nation’s foreign policy and diplomatic endeavors. The interplay between these multifaceted dynamics presents a complex tableau that necessitates a judicious and nuanced approach to understanding Russia's evolving position in the global arena.
North Caucasian volunteer battalions in the Ukraine conflict
The North Caucasus region has long been characterized as a focal point of instability within the Russian Federation, drawing significant attention from the academic community. However, in the early 21st century, marked improvements in both socioeconomic conditions and security were achieved, largely attributed to substantial intervention by the Kremlin. This intervention took the form of extensive financial support and strategic initiatives outlined in the Strategy 2025, aimed at fostering economic connectivity with neighboring regions, including the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Despite these efforts, the North Caucasus continues to grapple with significant challenges, underscoring the complexity of the issues at hand.
The emergence of volunteer battalions linked to the North Caucasus such as the Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion, the Shaykh Mansur Battalion, the Imam Shamil Battalion, and the Muslim Corp Kavkaz during the Ukraine conflict marked a pivotal turning point. This development led to a surge in movements advocating for self-determination among North Caucasian ethnic minorities and republics that gained traction particularly in social media and various media platforms.
The emergence of volunteer battalions aligned with the North Caucasus is paralleled by a cadre of organizations and movements fervently advocating for the independence of North Caucasian entities. Among these, the Dagestan National Centre has emerged as a prominent proponent of secession, articulating its mission to liberate the republic of Dagestan from perceived Russian occupation. This assertion reflects a deeply entrenched desire for self-determination, underlining the complex geopolitical sentiments that underlie the region's socio-political landscape.
Another noteworthy entity in this milieu is the Galgay Komitet, which operates as the Ingush Independence Committee and has further established the Ingush Liberation Army. This organization's primary objective is to restore what its members assert as the territorial integrity of Ingushetia, known as GIalgIayche, and to safeguard its borders from potential aggression emanating from what they perceive as Russian satellite states. The formation of the Ingush Liberation Army is emblematic of a broader sentiment among certain segments of the Ingush population, who harbor aspirations for autonomous governance and territorial sovereignty. These developments, while reflecting deep-seated historical and territorial grievances, also constitute a manifestation of the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play within the North Caucasus region.
The impact of Western sanctions on stability in the North Caucasus
The prevailing trend of increased advocacy for self-determination and independence in the North Caucasus is a matter of profound importance in the current regional context. Given the North Caucasus’ substantial dependency on financial support from the central government, any potential reduction in funding due to prolonged Western sanctions against Moscow could have far-reaching consequences. This includes the potential for disillusionment among local constituents and the erosion of trust in the central authorities, which is still under scrutiny. The calculated dissemination of propaganda by various entities within the region, including North Caucasian volunteer battalions and independent groups, further complicates the socio-political landscape, potentially swaying sentiments within the broader Russian populace.
While some Russian scholars have emphasized recent strides in regional security, it would be unwise to underestimate the considerable impact of Western sanctions. These sanctions have necessitated a shift in the Kremlin’s economic orientation towards the East. This strategic redirection is epitomized by Moscow’s intensified focus on the Russian Far East, marked by initiatives aimed at fortifying local demographics and constructing vital infrastructure to facilitate access to burgeoning Asian markets. Such a strategic reorientation carries with it the potential to divert critical resources away from the North Caucasus, which, in turn, could usher in renewed economic challenges for the region. This scenario could, in turn, reignite separatist movements and catalyze the resurgence of freedom fighters, thus posing a direct threat to governance structures and the overall stability of the North Caucasus within the Russian Federation.
The geopolitical context of the North Caucasus region
The North Caucasus, situated within the intricate geopolitical fabric of the Russian Federation, remains a region marked by a history of volatility and complexity. The Kremlin’s extensive involvement in the area has undoubtedly yielded improvements in both socioeconomic conditions and security. Nevertheless, the region’s pronounced reliance on state financial support renders it susceptible to external pressures, particularly in light of the prolonged Western sanctions. The emergence of movements advocating for self-determination, coupled with the potential reallocation of resources towards the Russian Far East, further underscores the tenuous equilibrium governing the North Caucasus' trajectory within the broader Russian Federation. These intricate dynamics demand a nuanced comprehension of the evolving role of the region in the larger geopolitical panorama.
A critical aspect of understanding the dynamics of the North Caucasus lies in the assessment of volunteer battalions and ethnic independence movements and their potential impact on Russian society. The advocacy for an independent Dagestan by entities like the Dagestan National Centre, for instance, may not fully account for the complex interplay of various ethnic groups within the region. Coexistence among these groups is often delicately balanced and occasionally subject to internal conflicts and crises. The promotion of ideas such as “Legzinistan”, an independent state straddling Dagestan and Azerbaijan by the Legzin movement, further accentuates the intricate socio-political landscape that characterizes the region.
The role of Islam in Russia
Within this geopolitical tapestry, it is imperative to recognize the North Caucasus as a predominantly Muslim region. The Russian Muslim umma (community), comprising approximately 15-20 million adherents, holds considerable sway in contemporary Russia, with Islam ranking as the country's second-most professed religion. The Kremlin attaches great significance to cultivating support from leaders within the Russian Muslim community, particularly given the presence of Muslim soldiers from diverse ethnic backgrounds participating in the conflict in Ukraine. This strategic focus is underscored by the inception of the pilot project on Islamic Banking in regions like Dagestan and Chechnya, in tandem with Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. This initiative acknowledges the North Caucasus’ potential to forge connections between Russia and the Arab-Muslim world.
The loss of control over the region, therefore, would not only engender internal challenges within the Russian Federation but also heighten the geopolitical risk, given the historical context of the area. The 1990s, for instance, witnessed the influx of foreign preachers and propagandists promoting political Islam and Salafism, laying the groundwork for local terrorist groups such as Imarat Kavkaz (Caucasus Emirate) and Vilayat Kavkaz (Caucasus Province), which maintained ties with the Islamic State.
Implications for European security
The evolving security landscape in Russia’s North Caucasus region warrants vigilant attention and scrutiny from Brussels in the context of geopolitical risk assessment. Recent incidents, such as the uncovering of a suspected Islamist terrorist cell in North Rhine-Westphalia by German federal prosecutors in July 2023, underscore the transnational nature of security threats emanating from this area. The apprehension of seven suspects from Central Asia, who had arrived in Germany from Ukraine in June 2022, exemplifies the potential for ripple effects beyond the immediate region. This incident serves as a poignant reminder of the imperative for European authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in monitoring developments in the North Caucasus.
Further reinforcing the need for heightened vigilance, recent events in Belgium and France serve as stark reminders of the security challenges associated with the North Caucasus and its diaspora in Europe. In January 2021, Belgian police conducted a series of targeted searches, including those focused on groups associated with Imarat Kavkaz (Caucasus Emirate), primarily in the western part of Flanders. This operation speaks to the existence of networks and affiliations that transcend national borders, necessitating a coordinated and cooperative approach at the European level. Likewise, the October 2020 terrorist attack in France, perpetrated by an individual of Chechen origin from the North Caucasian diaspora who beheaded a history teacher in Conflans Sainte-Honorine near Paris, serves as a chilling reminder of the potential ramifications of instability in the North Caucasus for European security.
These incidents serve as clear illustrations that the European Union is not insulated from the intricate dynamics of the North Caucasus and the Ukraine conflict. The participation of North Caucasian and Central Asian Muslims in the conflict, notably within the ranks of volunteer battalions integrated into the International Legion in Ukraine, raises concerns about the potential for radicalization and its subsequent impact on European security. As such, Brussels must adopt a proactive stance in closely monitoring and evaluating the situation in the North Caucasus to pre-emptively address emerging security challenges that may have far-reaching consequences for the stability of the European continent.
Silvia Boltuc is the founder and managing director of SpecialEurasia. She is an international affairs specialist, business consultant, and political analyst who has supported private and public institutions in decision-making by providing reports, risk assessments, and consultancy. She is also the Director of the Energy & Engineering Department of CeSEM (Centro Studi Eurasia Mediterraneo) and an editor/analyst at the Italian media agencies Notizie Geopolitiche, Opinio Juris, and European Affairs Magazine.
Silvia attended the Salzburg Global Pathways to Peace Initiative titled “Bear With Us: What Is to Be Done About Russia?” in October 2023. This program enabled experts to convene at Salzburg Global Seminar for a high-level dialogue exploring scenarios and questions about what options exist to engage, contain, and hold Russia accountable in a post-war context.
