Salzburg Global Fellow Pawan Poudel reflects on the U.S.' declining influence in Nepal, leaving way for China
This op-ed piece is part of a series, written by Fellows of the Salzburg Global Seminar program "Democracy on the Front Lines: Polarization, Culture and Resilience in America and the World."
Xi Jinping has recently become the most powerful political figure in the world's biggest populous and second-largest economy. As from neighboring countries, Nepal has seen China's proactive diplomatic involvement in recent years. After the increasing strategic programs being introduced in the Asia and Oceania regions and becoming closer to the new era of Xi's new renewal for the infinitive terms, China has become prominent and vocal against the U.S. and its strategies.
China was regarded as a silent power and in the global context, it had the belief that it will only conduct its diplomatic activities by being non-vocal. But Xi has gathered enormous power in handling the country's policy for the long term, which will directly affect the U.S. and its policies in its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Because of its long and strict covid restrictions, China has increased and regained its diplomatic strength in the Indo-Pacific region to tackle the U.S. influence. Along with its security-based Indo-Pacific strategy, the U.S. has at the same time, started another military collaboration platform with Australia, India, and Japan.
As the U.S. has felt the rising threat from China, it has expanded its collaboration and partnership programs in the region to tackle and prevent influence. But due to China's proactive diplomatic effort and recently being established as a towering figure in the country, the country has shown the U.S. strong resistance.
Disinformation and failure of the U.S.' State Partnership Program in Nepal
A few months ago, Nepal was in the process of implementing the U.S.’ assistance program, MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation). In the meantime, China mobilized its diplomatic power more vocally. The Chinese high-level delegation along with its diplomatic representative played a strong role in preventing the program. Traditionally aligned with the establishment of the country, China, this time favored left ideological parties in fueling against the sentiment, citing this will allow U.S. to mobilize military forces inside the country to guard it. Along with this, a disinformation campaign went so viral that the effort was seen as an anti-China military agreement.
After long dealings among political parties and to prevent more protests, some of the government parties issued a statement citing that this won't be part of any military alliance and will revoke the agreement if it happened like that. They also get pressure to convince the U.S. to accept their announcement with clarification in the agreement. After long discussion and protest between the ruling and opposition, the government, with difficulties, has become able to get approval from the parliament.
Just after this, another U.S. strategic program came to existence. A State Partnership Program (SPP) came to the surface in the political arena, after it nearly being endorsed by parliament. To tackle China, the U.S. tried its best to convince Nepal to form an alliance with the U.S. Utah National Guard to make its military stronger in disaster risk management. But after being fueled by sentiment against the U.S.’ Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Nepalese leadership failed to convince of its purpose. After a strong vocal protest from China, Nepal declared it would not join the SPP.
These two incidents show that China has become able to utilize its diplomatic strength in the region to prevent the rise of the U.S.' presence and limit its influence over the South China sea, Taiwan, and the Indo-Pacific region. And recently, being elected for infinity with its own principle of reviving Chinese glory with a strong military presence and threatening Taiwan and its allies against possible freedom, will act more in the future.
U.S.’ military vs China's assistance with the Belt and Road Initiative
The U.S. has failed to support the Indo-Pacific region after the Trump administration's priority of more domestic interest, rather than its military alliance. China, however, is trying its best to expand its need for economic support by developing bigger infrastructure. The main aim of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is to expand its influence through economic diplomacy. BRI has become China's soft tool to expand its diplomatic presence and tackle the U.S.' policy of promoting rule-based, democratic, and rights-based approaches and is gaining popularity.
“More engagement, more benefit”
Previously, the U.S. had tried its best to engage more with civil society by promoting democratic practices, human rights, media freedom, and good governance. But after the Trump administration's domestic politics, foreign civil society felt less prioritized. If we look at the case of Nepal, this has resulted in China playing a key role in influencing society, which resulted in a negative view of the MCC and SPP programs. Disinformation campaigns especially played a key role in creating that perception. This gap has resulted in China becoming proactive in neighboring foreign policy especially in the case of Nepal.
Among the public, because of one-sided information and because of the decreased engagement in the public, media and civil society, the U.S.' hand in Nepal significantly decreased.
To prevent this, the U.S. should start over and engage civil society again. To tackle one-sided and disinformation, it should plan and prioritize engagement programs. This could play a vital role in the promotion of democratic practices and increase of the U.S.’ influence in the region.
Pawan Poudel is a senior sub-editor for Galaxy 4k, the nation's leading news television, where he reports on diplomatic, political and social affairs with a keen eye on foreign relations, political development and human rights. He has nearly two decades of experience in the field of journalism. Pawan has successfully conducted various public debates on democracy, public diplomacy and local development.
