From climate change to technology and political instability, the pace of change today outstrips anything seen before. Global megatrends are acting on us in ways both seen and unseen.
The future is uncertain, but by strengthening connections between generations, building bridges between demographics, nurturing leaders who represent their communities effectively, and seeking intersectional solutions, we can position ourselves to confront challenges head-on and ensure we are ready to capitalize on the opportunities set to come our way.
To manage global demographic transition (a key megatrend that does not receive as much attention as the technological revolution or climate change), we must start now to cultivate leaders and communities who are ready to respond.
For the first time in history, a growing number of countries worldwide are set to have more old people than young. Those young people will shoulder an ever-growing weight of responsibility for the generations that came before them. South Korea is perhaps the archetype: It has the lowest birth rate in the world, and if nothing changes, the population will halve by 2100. But South Korea is far from unique - even in places largely viewed as the planet’s future (many of them in Africa), when it comes to the birth of new humans, fertility rates are falling quickly.
The more we dig into the ramifications of this global megatrend, the clearer it becomes that work to prepare for this new world must begin today.
Emerging challenges
The burden of ensuring financial sustainability in our old age, paid out through state and private pensions, is escalating rapidly and pension reform is needed now - not decades down the line, even if that means shouldering short-term costs now to ensure long-term sustainability in the future.
But this is not simply about what happens when a society gets old; the issue is far more significant than that alone. We must also ask what happens as a consequence of diverging values between older and younger generations. China is already beginning to grapple, unwillingly, with this question: the country’s youth are increasingly “lying flat,” mentally checking out of the workforce as a result of the expectations and burden of responsibility placed on a generation of single children by their aging parents. In India, novel ways of generating intergenerational empathy to address this divergence are being explored.
Connected to demographic change and diverging values is the constant state of near-unrest experienced in many countries because of a failure to reach a consensus on immigration. Not least in the European Union and its member states—despite the continent desperately needing more workers and benefitting from their arrival. This lack of consensus plays into the hands of populist politicians, most recently demonstrated in the Netherlands, who draw their influence from anti-immigrant sentiment. As the “old continent” ages further, continuing to welcome people from outside the EU is necessary to ensure the bloc’s financial sustainability - not to mention its social and cultural enrichment. Progressive policymakers and politicians alike need new positive counterarguments to those propagated by anti-immigrant populists.
Many of these challenges feel greater still in the face of poor intergenerational mobility, which has long been calculated based on economic measures such as increased earnings over generations. However, as wages stagnate and our concept of a good life and personal and communal well-being shift, this metric feels outdated and needs reimagining. If not, we risk younger generations despairing of the lack of “progress” they are achieving, further compounding intergenerational and intercommunal tensions.
The role of leaders
Managing these demographic, economic, and political tensions as social values diverge is already proving a point of deep contention, but the good news is that they are not insurmountable. Current and future leaders are already working - independently and collectively - to overcome them, and in doing so, are laying the foundations of a just, equitable, and sustainable future for their communities.
For example, take Vera Fonseca, who is mainstreaming gender issues in her work at Portugal’s High Commission for Migration. Her intersectional approach - acknowledging that migrants are not one homogenous group but individuals with challenges in their own lives and unique contributions they can make in their new home countries - shows how government agencies can manage migration more humanely. Doing so is not just morally right, but it delivers the most material benefit to both the individual immigrant and the society they join.
Poet and activist Rosakebia Estela Mendoza has worked as a cultural mediator for over a decade, bridging differences between cultures and generations in his native Peru, current home Japan, and elsewhere. He has advocated for his community’s accessibility to clean drinking water in the European Parliament and worked alongside communities and organizations to find common ground to move forward together. This has meant aiding older generations to become more digitally savvy, for example, or helping younger generations to access and appreciate their elders’ knowledge.
And in the UK, Jenny Wood, who co-directs children’s organization A Place in Childhood, brings young people into the process of designing their own spaces. She empowers them to be actors in their own lives - an experience that will serve them well for years to come, in a world that too often fails to listen to the people set to inherit it.
Whether in a community-based organization or large public institution, empathetic leaders like Vera, Rosakebia, and Jenny will be key as we navigate the coming transition of demographics, values, and economies. They, and their fellow Salzburg Global Fellows in the KFAS-Salzburg Global Leadership Initiative, are just the tip of the iceberg of the work going on today to not just prepare for the uncertain future we face but to proactively build the sustainable future we want.
They show that we are not simply the subjects of global megatrends but architects of our own future. They and many like them are already leading in rebuilding shared values. They are prioritizing human rights and the rights of minorities in their work. They are mainstreaming gender. Together, these leaders are ensuring that the challenges we face do not come between us—but rather draw us closer to each other.
This article featured in our digital publication, which includes more coverage from the KFAS-Salzburg Global Leadership Initiative program on "Uncertain Futures and Connections Reimagined: Connecting Generations".
The KFAS-Salzburg Global Leadership Initiative is a multi-year program that annually brings together an international, intergenerational, and interdisciplinary network of Korean and global thought leaders to create new connections and tackle global challenges.
