Understanding adaptative authoritarianism, civil society, and uncertainties in Chinese political life
The inner workings of China sometimes seem a mystery to external observers. To gain an insight into political life in China, one should understand the nature of the Chinese state and its relationship with civil society. These were among the thoughts shared during the Pathways to Peace Initiative’s latest program “Crossing New Rivers by Feeling the Stones? Aspirations, Expectations, and China's Role in the 21st Century,” where experts on China such as Diana Fu and Iza Ding convened to explore China’s evolving role on the global stage.
China’s political landscape
Diana Fu, Salzburg Global Fellow and associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto, described China as an autocracy or authoritarian regime, as political leaders are not elected or held accountable through voting mechanisms. However, she added that “one of the key things to understand about China is that, yes, it's an authoritarian regime, but it's not rigid. Authoritarian regimes change and China's authoritarian regime is very adaptive.”
Chinese policies function differently from policymaking in other contexts because “policy implies that there is some kind of deliberation, there is some kind of contestation from the ground-up, and that it is relatively stable over time. In reality, Chinese politics is driven by campaigns,” explained Diana.
In these campaigns, central leaders make a policy decision and then mobilize society to legitimize and propagandize it. Diana emphasized that understanding campaigns is central to understanding everything happening in China, saying that “when we're thinking about campaigns in China, the thing to understand is that it's not stable like a policy, [and] it can reverse at any point”.
Protests against the regime’s zero-COVID policy, for example, forced a sudden reversal of government policy. According to Diana, this revealed while “people may not be voters, they still sometimes have channels to voice their grievances and under certain conditions, the party-state will respond to that”.
These protests, in particular, signified “an unprecedented form of protest because it wasn't just about economic grievances… they were also upset politically that they couldn't even talk about being upset.” Proving its effectiveness, this protest in China ended the cycle of the COVID lockdown campaign.
Complex state-society dynamics
The relationship between the Chinese state and civil society groups is intricate and varies depending on the nature of the groups involved. Iza Ding, Salzburg Global Fellow and associate professor of political science at Northwestern University, noted this relationship has deteriorated over the past few years, as “the government has put a lot more pressure on civil society, especially the ones that have the potential for politics”. The Chinese government acts differently towards different kinds of groups, largely depending on whether their purpose is political or not.
Iza said that while there has been a crackdown on groups like LGBT* organizations, other groups involved with apolitical topics like wildlife protection, forests, and national parks are still able to operate relatively unhindered.
This reality challenges the Western idea “that a state-society [relationship] is a zero-sum game and that the state is always trying to predate on society and society is always trying to push back,” added Iza. Contrary to this idea, some civil society organizations want to work with the government for financial and logistical support. However, when their interests diverge, a more zero-sum dynamic emerges. Iza notes that in the face of increasing repression, many civil society groups strive to adapt, navigate the changed situation, and continue their pursuits while living within the constraints imposed.
Reflections on China’s changes and the future of civil society
According to Diana, Chinese civil society today consists of “people in the grassroots, often young people, [who are] very idealistic and they want to see change. They don't necessarily want to see regime change, but they want to see change in terms of more freedom of expression for sexual minorities, for example, or they want to see better environmental standards, or they want to see better working conditions.”
Under the current regime of Xi Jinping, Diana warned these people’s voices are repressed. Since witnessing the color revolutions in Eastern Europe during the 2000s, when civil society became powerful and challenged the state, the Chinese state has been afraid of grassroots organizing, which has led to a clampdown on these voices in civil society.
Looking ahead, Diana identified young women and sexual minorities as crucial populations to watch in China. She elaborated that young women can be vanguards of social change, especially when one looks at how many anti-COVID lockdown protests were led by young women who were also chanting slogans like “down with the patriarchy”. As many young people do not currently see themselves represented by their leaders, she suggested that the Chinese government “needs change in terms of hearing the voices of young people”.
Reflecting on changes in China over the past decade, Iza expressed heightened concern over uncertainty, as “China today is more unpredictable than China [from] five or ten years ago… I think increasingly the entropy is higher and higher both domestically and internationally.”
Diana noted the divergence from expectations a decade ago when many believed Xi Jinping would usher in a more liberal era. Instead, “China today is a lot less liberal politically, arguably economically as well. Also, it is China that is standing up and says no to the West a lot.”
As the multifaceted state-society relationship in China continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how government repression, uncertainty, and global events will shape the country's political landscape.
* LGBT: Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender. We are using this term as it is currently widely used in human rights conversations on sexual orientation and gender identity in many parts of the world, and we would wish it to be read as inclusive of other cultural concepts, contemporary or historical, to express sexuality and gender, intersex and gender non-conforming identities.
Diana Fu and Iza Ding attended the Salzburg Global Pathways to Peace Initiative titled “Crossing New Rivers by Feeling the Stones? Aspirations, Expectations, and China's Role in the 21st Century” from February 18 to 21, 2024. This program was a forward-looking opportunity to debate and understand the future of global engagement with a rising China. It convened an intergenerational, international, and interdisciplinary group from government, the private sector, and civil society to engage in off-the-record conversations to evaluate sources of misunderstanding between China and the globe, to explore state and non-state mechanisms through which to productively engage China, and to identify risk-mitigating pathways.
