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Then they can read all about the invasion. But there is still no opposition. The pay for soldiers is too good for that.

This interview has been translated from German to English. The original article can be found at Salzburger Nachrichten.

Igor Gretskiy received complaints as a professor in St. Petersburg because he called the so-called reunification with the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk what it is: an annexation. Since 2022, the Russian has been living in Estonia. He attended the Salzburg Global Seminar program "Bear With Us: What Is To Be Done About Russia?" in October 2023.

Salzburger Nachrichten (SN): In Russia, many families bury their sons. Why is this tolerated? Do they support Putin’s war aims?

Igor Gretskiy: We don’t see as many protests from soldiers’ mothers as we saw in the 1990s. Every political regime- whether totalitarian or democratic- learns lessons. Putin learned from Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Putin definitely believes that the collapse of the Soviet Union began with the intervention in Afghanistan. The relatives of soldiers asked questions at the time: 'What did my husband, my brother, or my son die for?' The official propaganda spoke of the obligation to defend a socialist government. But that was not enough. The people took to the streets and got a lot of attention from journalists. Putin has learned from this. 

SN: What did he learn?

IG: Now the government prefers to conclude contracts with the people. They are not mobilized; they are lured by money. A lot of money: If a person does military service on the front line, on a daily basis, he or she can earn up to 8,000 euros a month. In Russia, that’s a lot of money. If you do that for two or three months, you can buy yourself an apartment in Saratov. Let’s put that into the Russian context, where a huge gap exists between rich and poor. In the northern Caucasus region, the average monthly wage is around 250 euros. Imagine what a treasure that 8,000 euros is. This is an opportunity to escape poverty and rapidly change your standard of living. To summarize: The government is buying people’s loyalty. And the people sell it. That is the reason why we don’t see protests or committees of mothers.

SN: Money is one thing, morality the other. Is this Putin’s war or theirs too?

IG: In the West, it is often believed that Putin skillfully uses his propaganda and brainwashes the population. But you can't control people 100 percent with propaganda. It's impossible. One example: When the pandemic began, the Russian government used every means at its disposal to get people vaccinated. People ignored that. For them, the conspiracy theories that the vaccination was intended to shrink the Russian population were very popular. The propaganda failed.

SN: What happens when you google the war in Ukraine while in Russia? What do you read?

IG: If you type in “special military operation” in Russia and then click on the result from Russia’s Wikipedia, you can find out what the special operation means. It says, ‘It is a euphemism used by the Russian government to describe the invasion of Ukraine. Russia has attacked.’ It says that quite clearly. Every Russian citizen can read that. Network coverage in Russia is 95 percent. There are around 107 million adults in Russia, and they all have the ability to inform themselves.

SN: Why don’t they do it?

IG: They want other information. The West often makes the mistake of saying, ‘Okay, let’s install a different Russian television program and reach out to Russian civil society’. That is not the solution.

SN: Why not?

IG: I need to expand on this a little. There is one group in Russia that is particularly large: the generation of post-war baby boomers. Those who went off to war had to postpone starting a family. Because of this, in the 1940s and 50s, a very, very large number of children were born. This group is the largest in the Russian demographic - my parents are among them. They are 43 million people. When these people were around 40 years old, the Soviet Union collapsed. That's a moment in life when you've already achieved something, gained experience and knowledge, and are ready for the next step. And suddenly the perspective is gone. People didn't know what a free-market economy was. They didn't want competition. They didn't feel comfortable with that. They wanted someone to take care of them. This life experience is an important factor. It is one reason for Putin's vertical power. That's what people want. One person is responsible.

SN: Reaching civil society therefore does not work. What does work?

IG: Help Ukraine win the war. If Ukraine loses, Western governments will have to rapidly ramp up their defense budgets. Vladimir Putin will show up and issue a new ultimatum, just like he did in 2021. Many believed he was bluffing. Let’s imagine that Ukraine loses this war and Lavrov comes and says, ‘Here I am again. Pull your military bases out of Eastern European countries. Reverse the NATO expansion of the past 30 years.’

SN: Otherwise, what?

IG: Otherwise, Moldova will be next. Russia will test Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the case for mutual assistance. Perhaps not by conventional means. But perhaps by attacking infrastructure through cyberattacks. That’s one thing, the other is to let Russians decide their own future. Any attempt to reach the Russian population will be viewed as an intervention and exploited by propaganda. History teaches us that empires, including the Soviet Union, can collapse. Especially when it is struggling with its own problems.