Former Austrian Chancellor Schüssel offers his insight on the Russia-Euro-Atlantic relationship
Dr. Wolfgang Schuessel delivers the annual Henry Brandon Memorial Lecture on Contemporary European History Former Austrian Chancellor, Dr. Wolfgang Schüssel delivered the annual Brandon Lecture on Tuesday November 27, telling participants of the session ‘Cultural Dialogue in International Security: The Case of Russia and the Euro-Atlantic Community’ of his optimism for the Russian-European/American relationship.The long-serving Austrian politician has held in numerous positions as a member of the Austrian Parliament since 1975, including the Minister for Economic Affairs, the Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs and eventually the Federal Chancellor of Austria between 2000 and 2007. During his tenure as Chancellor, Schüssel, amongst other things, strove for the integration of Austria into the European Union. Now, since leaving Austrian politics, Schüssel has continued his work in international integration, currently serving as a board member of the think-tank DER-Dialog-Europe-Russia, alongside other former high-level politicians such as from Poland, Finland and Russia as well as WTO Director General, Pascal Lamy.Whilst the former Chancellor has been recently beleaguered with accusations of corruption against members of his governments, it was in this new capacity with DER that Schüssel addressed the international audience at Schloss Leopoldskron, home of the Salzburg Global Seminar.Bleak or bright?Delivering the annual Henry Brandon Memorial Lecture on Contemporary European History, Dr. Schüssel told the gathered audience of Russia and security experts from a dozen different countries there are two predominant views on Russia and its relationship with the West: “bleak” and “bright”.On one hand, the bleak view sees Russia stepping down from its leading global role to become just a regional player, with slowing economic growth; a rapidly shrinking current account surplus; plummeting market shares for its energy outfit, Gazprom as LNG and shale gas grow in importance in the energy market; together with an increase in emigration as 10 to 20 percent of Russians express a desire to leave the motherland.In this bleak view, Russia is exporting less oil and gas, and more money and people, Schüssel explained.However, on other hand, Russia is facing a bright, positive future. Its demographics are improving, with the average age increasing significantly over the last 10 years, and unemployment is low compared to its neighbors. It has the best growth market in Europe at around four percent, compared to one and two percent in Western and Eastern Europe respectively, Schüssel said. It is also the only BRIC country (Brazil, Russia, India and China – the biggest emerging economies) with a substantial middle class, he added. Russia’s hard currency reserves – at more than $500bn – meant that it overcame the 2008 financial crisis without major problems, unlike its Western counterparts.“These two views are completely contradictory!” Schüssel exclaimed. “We need a more realistic view.”But what might that view be?Russian realismRussia is undoubtedly in a better position than in 1989, with Schüssel recollecting Russia’s “absolutely insolvent” and “close to anarchy”. Stability has returned; it is moving cautiously to becoming a full member of international society with its moves for WTO and OECD membership; it is a major trading partner of the EU; and in 2013 it will take up the rotating chair of the G20 – possibly improving the legitimacy of the group, Schüssel suggests.But Russia is not without it problems. Russian society’s desire for stability has led to the re-establishment of a controlling political class. This longing for stability needs to be understood by other countries if they are to improve their relations with Russia. The pro-integrationist attitudes of the Yeltsin era have now given way to the Putin desire to maintain a safe and stable country, at the cost of social, political and economic reforms and greater global co-operation.“Reforms are necessary… but these reforms must come from within Russia,” said Schüssel. These reforms cannot from outside, he warned. Nor can they simply be top-down.“Everyone is looking to see what is the man on the top [President Putin] is doing – this is not possible in a country with such a rich society,” he said.Besides dealing with Putin (who Schüssel called an “extremely capable politician” and “much better informed than most of us,” with a generally unrealized “flexibility to adapt”), dialogue needs to be opened up on all levels of civil society, and not just focused at the top of government. DER has attempted to do this by engaging the next generation, bringing together young Russians and other young Europeans, as well as taking young Russians on trips to European institutions such as the European Commission and European Parliament. Policy engagement on a higher level, Schüssel said, doesn’t always work as the West still doesn’t treat Russia as an equal – or at least this is how the Russians feel; they still see themselves “side-lined by the West”. Western perceptions still believe that Russia simply does not wish to participate. DER’s strategic attempts to initiate dialogue with younger generations hopes to overcome these long-held (mis-)perceptions.Russia also feels a sense of being “unrewarded,” explained Schüssel. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, Russia did give some immediate support but since it has felt that the US is encroaching on Russia’s interests in former USSR and Middle East. This lead to the much-touted possible “new Cold War” in 2007, thanks to a proposed missile shield in to be built in Poland and the Czech Republic – despite repeated assurances that Iran, not Russia, was the expected threat.Reset and trustThe Obama’s administration’s “reset” of relations in 2009 has thawed relations somewhat, with the new SALT treaty and the long-awaited confirmation of Russia’s membership of the WTO this year, but current tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and Syria’s Russian-weaponry-fuelled civil war show that there is still much that needs to be improved.Enormous trust is needed from both sides, said Schüssel.Syria is not specifically a US-Russian problem, he said but any potential regime change to be brought about in the country must have US, EU, Russian and Arab League co-operation.For the EU, one of the greatest strains on its relationship with Russia is Russia’s recent spate of human rights abuses with many political opponents facing imprisonment. But despite earlier murmured threats on European energy supplies, European leaders, particularly German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are no longer intimidated by Russia, said Schüssel, as proven by her recent declaration that “our friendship [with Russia] will not grow if we sweep everything under the rug” in response to the harsh sentences that two members of the Pussy Riot punk band/protest group had received and the change in law regarding the registration of overseas NGOs in Russia.Concluding, Schüssel said that the EU and USA should not believe those who think that Russia will re-orientate its foreign policy to focus more on Asia – saying it will not move to Asia instead, but also. Ultimately, he said, it might not be easy to engage with Russia, but the EU and USA “would be better off to do so”.The Henry Brandon Memorial Lecture on Contemporary European History was established in 1994. Oscar Henry Brandon was born in Liberec, in former Czechoslovakia, on March 9, 1916, and studied at Prague and Lausanne Universities. He began his career with The Sunday Times (London) in 1939, serving as a war correspondent in North Africa and Western Europe (1943-45); Paris correspondent (1945-46); roving diplomatic correspondent (1947-49); and Washington correspondent (later, chief American correspondent) from 1949 until he retired in 1983. Mr. Brandon concurrently served as associate editor of The Sunday Times during a significant period of his time with the paper. He was a syndicated columnist with the Washington Star (1979-81), and was also a columnist with the New York Times World Syndicate as well as a guest scholar at The Brookings Institution. In Mr. Brandon’s obituary in the Washington Post, April 21, 1993, the now-deceased Lloyd N. Cutler, former special counsel to President Clinton and former chairman of the Board of the Salzburg Global Seminar, called Mr. Brandon “not only wonderfully perceptive, but truly gentle, and a great believer in what Europeans call a civil society.” Brandon Lecturers include Sir Michael Palliser, Dr. Dominique Moïsi, Ambassador Eva Nowotny, Dr. Helen Wallace, Professor Tony Judt, Sir David Hannay, Member of Parliament Erika Mann and other distinguished academics and public figures.