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China is focusing on several key aspects of its technological development to maintain its status as a leading tech superpower
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Having undergone rapid technological and industrial growth, China has emerged as a dominant player in the field of technology. With infinite possibilities and implications, technology has become a critical battleground where geopolitics plays out, as shown by tech sanctions and import controls on China from countries like the US.
“Technology is caught up in the political arena… take the smartphone, for example, it matters more and more where it is made, where the data is stored, and who has access to the data,” reflected Paul Triolo, Salzburg Global Fellow and Senior Vice President for China and Global Technology Policy Lead at Albright Stonebridge Group.
As part of the Pathways to Peace Initiative on “Crossing New Rivers by Feeling the Stones? Aspirations, Expectations, and China's Role in the 21st Century”, Salzburg Global Fellows explored how technology affects China’s global role. From the discussion, it became clear that China's status as a global tech leader depends on its ability to reduce its dependence on foreign technology, minimize the risk of generative AI, balance private and public dynamics, and manage standards and regulations.
Quoting “America Against America” by Huning Wang, a Fellow reflected that “politics without technology cannot be a strong politics… technology without politics cannot be a strong technology”. Following this logic, the Chinese government believes that its technology must have strategic use for the party.
Paul added, “Despite China’s advanced manufacturing and modern infrastructure, they are still very dependent on other countries for basic components, such as semiconductors and software.” Following new US sanctions, China increasingly desires to reduce its dependence on foreign technology.
A Fellow described the future strategy for technological development in China as “figuring out a different roadmap going forward”. This entails proactively strengthening technologies with more substantial implications and areas of usage within the country.
Companies like Huawei, who are researching and developing semiconductors, cloud computing, optical networks, and many other core technologies, will be tasked with creating a new tech roadmap for China. By maximizing existing tools and knowledge, the industry aims to build the infrastructure necessary for reduced dependence on Western technology.
The popularization of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is already beginning to revolutionize the tech industry. However, despite tremendous enthusiasm around AI amongst Chinese companies, Fellows estimated a degree of uncertainty surrounding AI at the highest levels in Beijing.
“I think the Communist Party of China does not want that much generative AI in China,” a Fellow said, “the model itself is by definition probabilistic, and it is not a level of risk the Chinese government wants to take right now”. Indeed, the predictability and replicability of results are paramount to Chinese governance.
The multitude of possibilities AI creates is undeniable, but controlling and understanding the technology, or having “deterministic outcomes,” as a Fellow termed it, is equally important to the Chinese government. In addition, without clear avenues for application and a lack of integration with hard tech, Fellows believe that AI will remain in the background for now.
Producing and manufacturing technology is only one side of the equation; deploying and integrating technology, or “diffusion,” as the Fellows termed it, is equally important.
Fellows noted an interesting and defining diffusion dynamic in China that is created by the private and the public sectors. “The popularization of technology in China is a combination of both consumer demand and what the government wants the country to look like,” one Fellow stated. He illustrated this with an example of the Chinese market for electric vehicles (EVs), explaining that “the rapid adoption of EVs in China is a product of many years of government subsidies… and also the nature of life in China”.
This implies that state-initiated development will continue to play a crucial part in the development and innovation of Chinese technology. However, China’s government-led approach to tech development might not be the most productive environment for private innovators, as it is difficult for the state to distribute incentives to all sectors. Moreover, foreign sanctions and state regulations are limiting innovators' potential in the tech space.
On the one hand, China is working to model their privacy laws after the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which is built on individuals’ rights to privacy as enshrined in the Charter of Fundamental Rights. Despite having different systems of governance and different access to data, China’s attempt to comply with international privacy laws could build the foundation for enhanced global integration and improved data flow.
However, the latest sanctions are pushing Chinese companies to innovate and detach from Western technology. As technological challenges continue to arise, there is a concern that countries may have trouble agreeing on new standards for the next groundbreaking technology. A Fellow suggested that we avoid “the idea that China should be excluded from standard setting for 6G”.
It took decades of negotiations to integrate China into international standard-setting bodies, and undoing this could pose additional challenges for developing future technology.
Fellows who contributed to this article attended the Salzburg Global Pathways to Peace Initiative titled “Crossing New Rivers by Feeling the Stones? Aspirations, Expectations, and China's Role in the 21st Century”from February 18 to 21, 2024. This program was a forward-looking opportunity to debate and understand the future of global engagement with a rising China. The forum assembled an intergenerational, international, and interdisciplinary group from government, the private sector, and civil society to engage in off-the-record conversations to evaluate sources of misunderstanding between China and the globe, to explore state and non-state mechanisms through which to productively engage China, and to identify risk-mitigating pathways.