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Dr. Fiona Hill in conversation with Martin Weiss on Confronting Existential Threats to Democracy, Security, and the Rule of Law
On November 9, friends and Fellows of Salzburg Global Seminar gathered in Washington, DC for the Ninth Lloyd N. Cutler Lecture on the Rule of Law.
The conversation, titled Confronting Existential Threats to Democracy, Security, and the Rule of Law, featured Dr. Fiona Hill, one the US’ foremost experts on Russia and Ukraine. Fiona served as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019 and was the national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at The National Intelligence Council from 2006 to 2009. The discussion was moderated by Martin Weiss, President and CEO of Salzburg Global Seminar and former Austrian Ambassador to the United States.
“The younger generation of Russians is not happy at all with this”, noted Fiona, explaining that while polling results show declining but continued Russian support for the war, protests among Russians within and outside the country have gathered speed, and hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled the country to avoid conscription. She added that support for Putin has remained robust in Russian polls because “of course if you’re asked, ‘do you still support Putin?’, you’re being asked ‘would you like to go into the gulag for the next 11 years?’”
In addition to waning domestic support for the war, Fiona explained that Putin is not only facing growing backlash from neighboring countries where Russia held influence before the war, but also formally sympathetic countries, like China and India, who are growing increasingly displeased with Putin’s nuclear saber rattling.
Regarding Putin’s response to growing opposition to the war – a war that, as Martin Weiss noted, Putin is fighting with drastically dwindling resources - Fiona argued that Putin has shown he is “willing to throw everything out the window”. Internationally, he will continue to use nuclear blackmail in the hopes of getting the West to concede to his illegal invasion (a threat Fiona called a false trade-off given the strategic situation) and internally, he will try to remind his populace of his power and the consequences of dissension.
Fiona Hill and Martin Weiss both agreed that a unified position from the US and Europe, and engagement with countries like China and India, is imperative. She added that one hopeful shift during this war has been an increased sense of responsibility and involvement from the public, and a willingness from people to hold their governments accountable for their actions toward the war.
Looking ahead, Fiona noted that one possible next move from Putin could be to declare a unilateral ceasefire under the notion that Russia wanted to negotiate all along, a move that would “immediately put Ukraine on the backfoot”.
Following the moderated conversation, the floor was opened to audience members, who asked about opportunities for change in Russia. Fiona responded that one possible inflection point is Russia’s 2024 election, where Putin will need to prove his popularity.
As for mechanisms available to Russians to enact change, she noted that while protests have gathered speed in Russia, oppression is still strong. Through the arresting and fining of thousands of Russian protestors, as well as the arrests of U.S. citizens Brittany Griner and Paul Whelan, Putin is showing Russians and the world how far he is willing to go for this war.
“The most essential question is whether the people have had enough, and how the elite will respond,” said Hill, noting that a few Kremlin leaders have already spoken out against the war.
To conclude the evening, Fiona reflected on a powerful sentiment heard from many of her Russian colleagues in the US: “‘I don’t want to be part of this crazy past that Putin is conjuring up, I don’t want to be a part of Putin’s present, but I want to be part of Russia’s future.’” She reminded the audience that, as with any conflict, we must be mindful of who we engage with. As we look toward the future of Europe and the world, we must engage with the people and organizations that are prioritizing peace.
This moderated conversation was held by Salzburg Global Seminar on Wednesday, November 9 at the United States Institute of Peace, under the auspices of the Lloyd N. Cutler Center for the Rule of Law. The lecture series was started by Salzburg Global Seminar in 2009 to honor the life and work of Lloyd N. Cutler, former White House Counsel to Presidents Carter and Clinton and long-time Chair of Salzburg Global’s Board of Directors.